NISOURCE INC. (NI) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

FY 2024 adjusted EPS reached $1.75, above the guidance range, while Q4 adjusted EPS was $0.49 (down year over year), and 2025 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $1.85–$1.89 .
Base CapEx plan increased to $19.4B for 2025–2029 (from $19.3B), supporting 8–10% rate base growth and 6–8% annual adjusted EPS growth; upside CapEx plan rose to $2.2B .
Balance sheet metrics improved: FFO-to-debt reached 14.6% in 2024, and the annualized dividend target increased from $1.06 to $1.12; quarterly dividend declared at $0.28 per share in January 2025 .
Catalysts: new Indiana GENCO structure to serve large loads/data centers with potential above regulated returns; NIPSCO IRP contemplates 2,600 MW reference-case data center load and 8,000 MW upside case .

“We continue our track record of strong financial growth achieving 2024 non-GAAP EPS of $1.75” and raised 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.85–$1.89, reaffirming 6–8% annual EPS growth through 2029 .
Operational execution and efficiency: Apollo program delivered $77M O&M savings; AI work management increased productivity 16% in Ohio; safety metrics improved y/y (8% lower OSHA incident rate, ~10% lower preventable collisions) .
Regulatory progress: PA and KY rate case settlements approved; VA universal settlement awaiting final order; NIPSCO electric rate case settlement filed; base CapEx increased to address growth and reliability needs .

Q4 adjusted EPS fell y/y ($0.49 vs $0.53), driven by higher depreciation, other taxes, and noncontrolling interest, partly offset by increased rate base investment .
Weather remained a headwind; 2024 unfavorable vs normal contributed to ~50 bps FFO-to-debt reduction; weather normalization also affected quarterly comparisons .
Continued supply chain, compliance, and capital intensity pressures highlighted in 10-K risk factors (PHMSA, EPA GHG rules, MISO accreditation), potentially raising costs and complexity of execution .

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
GAAP EPS ($)	$0.19	$0.19	$0.47
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.21	$0.20	$0.49
GAAP Net Income ($MM)	$85.8	$85.7	$223.9

Metric	FY 2023	FY 2024	YoY
Operating Revenues ($MM)	$5,505.4	$5,455.1	$(50.3)
Operating Income ($MM)	$1,295.5	$1,455.5	$160.0
Net Income Avail. to Common ($MM)	$661.7	$739.7	$78.0
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.48	$1.62	$0.14
Adjusted EPS ($)	$1.60	$1.75	$0.15

Segment	FY 2023 ($MM)	FY 2024 ($MM)	Change ($MM)
Columbia Operations	$2,746.1	$2,716.0	$(30.1)
NIPSCO Operations	$2,771.6	$2,752.0	$(19.6)

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	$1.84–$1.88	$1.85–$1.89	Raised
Adjusted EPS CAGR	2025–2029	6–8%	6–8%	Maintained
Rate Base Growth	2025–2029	8–10%	8–10%	Maintained
Base CapEx Plan	2025–2029	$19.3B	$19.4B	Raised ($0.1B)
Upside CapEx	Multi-year	$1.8B (Q3 disclosure)	$2.2B	Raised ($0.4B)
Dividend (annualized)	2025	$1.06	$1.12; quarterly $0.28	Raised

Topic	Q2 2024 (Prior-2)	Q3 2024 (Prior-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
Data centers/load growth	Reaffirmed 6–8% EPS growth; Cavalry in service; trackers progress	IRP in process; base CapEx $19.3B; data center interest; Microsoft LaPorte noted	GENCO declination filing; IRP reference 2,600 MW, upside 8,000 MW; above regulated returns possible	Increasing visibility; 2025 decision points
AI/Technology	—	ERP/WAM/AI deferrals and benefits	AI work mgmt boosted productivity; Apollo O&M savings $77M	Execution benefits widening
Regulatory	Trackers and rate case progress	PA/KY settlements; IN CPCN approvals; NIPSCO rate case filed	PA/KY approvals; VA settlement pending; IN NIPSCO settlement filed	Continued constructive outcomes
Generation transition	Cavalry placed in service	Ownership conversions; Dunns Bridge II early 2025; CPCN gas peaker approved	Dunns Bridge II substantial completion; 900 MW capacity likely by 2028 per IRP	Steady progress; capacity needs rising
Financing/balance sheet	Reaffirm guidance; no GAAP eqv. for adjusted EPS	Priced $600M ATM; junior subs issued; target FFO-to-debt 14–16%	FFO-to-debt 14.6%; dividend raised; multiple funding options (CFO)	Improved flexibility

CEO: “We continue our track record of strong financial growth achieving 2024 non-GAAP EPS of $1.75” and raised 2025 guidance accordingly .
Operations: “Our data and analytics team… an ensemble of advanced AI models… work productivity increased 16% versus the same period in 2023” .
Strategy: “Northern Indiana is the premier location for data centers… potential for substantial value creation for all stakeholders” .
CFO: 2024 FFO-to-debt 14.6%; annualized dividend increased to $1.12; financing flexibility via cash from operations, ATM, and junior subordinated notes .

GENCO entity: Company can sign data center contracts without waiting for IURC approval; GENCO ruling expected by Q3 2025; FERC approvals not needed to set up/sign contracts; structure targets speed, flexibility, and customer protection .
Returns: Management expects the GENCO to enable returns “above and beyond… potential regulated returns” for large-load customers .
Financing: Comfortable funding incremental CapEx via cash from operations, existing ATM, and junior subs without immediate need for new equity; prioritizing minimizing regulatory lag .
IRP load scenarios: Reference case 2,600 MW data center demand; upside case 8,000 MW; generation additions likely include storage and dispatchable gas resources to meet MISO accreditation changes .
Microsoft LaPorte: Negotiations ongoing; not yet “steel in the ground” .

Wall Street consensus estimates (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue were not retrievable due to access limitations at the time of analysis; therefore, beat/miss versus estimates cannot be determined here. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global consensus.

FY 2024 delivered above-range adjusted EPS with Q4 softness tied to higher depreciation/taxes/noncontrolling interest; trajectory remains intact given raised 2025 guidance and reaffirmed 6–8% EPS CAGR .
The GENCO filing is a pivotal strategic step to serve large-load/data center demand with potentially superior returns while protecting existing customers; watch for 2025 contract signings and Q3 2025 IURC ruling .
Capital program uplift (base $19.4B; upside $2.2B) and IRP indicate rising capacity needs by 2028; mix likely includes storage and gas peakers to satisfy reliability and MISO accreditation requirements .
Balance sheet and funding flexibility improved (FFO-to-debt 14.6%, dividend raised, completed ATM and junior subs), reducing equity issuance risk for base plan execution .
Regulatory backdrop remains constructive with multiple settlements/approvals supporting timely recovery; this underpins cash flow visibility and mitigates lag .
Near-term trading: stock may react to data center contract announcements and clarity on GENCO structure/returns; medium-term thesis hinges on consistent execution of base plan, regulatory outcomes, and scaling generation/storage to meet rising load .